CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-05-19T14:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-19T14:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31032/-1
CME Note: Thin, faint CME seen to the east in all coronagraphs. The source is not too clear, but may be associated with an M1.9 flare from AR 3685 that peaked at 2024-05-19T13:44Z, best observed in SDO AIA 131. Some weak field line movement is observed at this time of the flare in SDO AIA 171/193, and dark filamentary material is seen rising along field lines after the flare occurs and correlates to the start time of the CME in coronagraph imagery. Possible arrival signature is characterized by a drop in temperature and rotation of two magnetic field components; at 05:55Z there is the beginning of a drop in temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-22T05:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-22T23:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: 35.33 hour(s)
Difference: -17.33 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-05-20T18:20Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement